Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 22.373516 24.530029 26.946399 29.885660 33.408320 37.553889 42.895196
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 19.182304 21.963972 25.332386 29.821582 35.834468 43.924538 56.279861
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.131599 20.240394 24.228774 29.943271 38.360910 51.208571 74.761567
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.520051 18.757229 23.091858 29.662121 40.133707 58.045982 97.721193
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 14.304090 17.598931 22.164517 29.416778 41.802970 65.415011 129.776580
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.339596 16.651993 21.373390 29.178392 43.357240 73.358068 176.713340
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.572103 15.890373 20.737624 29.041395 45.019583 82.559139 254.232045
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.817964 15.072525 19.912927 28.429435 45.566370 89.492479 357.996297
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.556566 14.948016 20.137079 29.670446 50.358498 112.622460 944.875326
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 11.023761 14.368118 19.565308 29.348481 51.540189 125.608481 2665.148606
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.620141 13.953901 19.220926 29.399809 53.662423 145.477086 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 10.295163 13.636583 19.004680 29.664219 56.455990 174.023612 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.969675 13.304352 18.745671 29.832589 59.193404 210.871219 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.608745 12.893880 18.317060 29.585340 60.675904 245.989330 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.319981 12.582535 18.037981 29.624417 63.144584 303.818777 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.007276 12.214292 17.627547 29.313157 64.369816 360.270226 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.726760 11.884181 17.262195 29.057356 65.749733 437.745543 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.469451 11.579535 16.922105 28.817181 67.149721 544.397290 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 8.243290 11.315862 16.640046 28.680104 68.960820 718.096647 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.977503 10.973810 16.189240 28.079575 68.661383 836.348314 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.935800 11.008335 16.454817 29.294006 77.013918 2609.022101 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.728822 10.750208 16.137752 28.978610 78.121564 5116.647094 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.572395 10.572694 15.967427 29.028739 81.199898 90576.725426 NaN